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By Michael Clarkson The Mile High Home Hunter The latest market statistics came out this week from Denver's MetroList MLS service.
Some interesting points:
Unemployment: - National - 8.5% (up 0.4%) - the highest since 1983.
- Colorado - 7.2% (up 0.6%) - the highest since 1988.
- Denver - 7.9% (up 0.5%)
Months of Housing Inventory is DOWN SHARPLY (good thing for prices), meaning a trend toward a Seller Market. - Seasonalized (taking into the seasaonality of the Denver's market sales 60% April - September; 40% October - March) - 5.35 Months of Inventory - Seller Market
- Unseasonalized (taking only the current month demand into account) - 6.43 Months of Inventory - Neutral Market
- A well balanced market is 6 Months of Inventory
Days on Market - 106 Days - For all markets, Single Family Homes & Condos. It was the first time in recent memory where all markets converged for this metric.
- Days on Market were relatively stable for Single Family Homes, and Condo Days on Market is down from 118 Days this time last year.
Housing markets in Denver are increasingly stratified by price segment: - $0 - $200k (median price in Denver) 2.6 Months of Inventory - STRONG SELLER MARKET
- $200k - $400k - (median price to roughly about the $100k qualifying buyer) 5.1 Months of Inventory - SELLER MARKET
- $400k - $1m - ($100k qualifying buyer to the sub-luxury market) 12.4 Months of Inventory - STRONG BUYER MARKET
- $1m and above - (the luxury market) 37.1 Months of Inventory - FUHGEDDABOUDIT (By the way, that's not an official real estate term.)
- In fact, you heard about that story on KMGH 7News this past week. (See story here: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/money/19134459/detail.html )
However, if you have been a reader of my blogs for the past year, you KNEW about this trend (and others) for over a year: The diverging market addressed only this week by Channel 7. But here is what you heard about this market for the past year: November 2, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/11/denver-market-statistics.html - A lower end market housing shortage (meaning that lower priced homes were flying off the shelf):
July 28, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/07/news-from-mile-high-home-hunter.html - Paying the "Procrastination Tax" - Talks about why you shouldn't try to time the market like a stock
May 14, 2008 - http://milehighhomehunter.blogspot.com/2008/05/daily-dirt-real-estate-news-update-from_9798.html - This one also speaks to the errors in RealtyTrac showing Denver was NEVER a #1 state for foreclosures - and it cost you!!!
Listing inventory is at a 5 year low at 20.628 homes - Down 25% from the recent peak in 2006
- Down 19% from 2008
Sold homes are at a 5 year low at 3,206 homes. - Down 30.3% from the recent peak in 2005
- Down 13.5% from 2008
The percentage of homes under contract - waiting to close - which normally averages at 127.8%, stayed high at 150.5%. In short, for 100 homes sold, 150.5 were waiting to sell. This is consistent with prior years' activity for this time of the year. - This percentage is a great leading indicator of the market. In short, it's the window into anticipated activity in the market one to two months out.
Prices are rebounding convincingly: - Average sold price - $251,583, up from $236,920 in February - up 5.8%
- Median sold price - $203,950, up from $192,500 in February (Median is the point at which 50% of the market sells above that price and 50% sells below that price) - up 5.6%
If you have any questions, give me a call.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Churchill
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