Michael Clarkson is one of Denver's highest profile brokers. He’s been featured in Realtor® Magazine three separate times, Denver Post, Denver Business Journal, KOA Radio, KHOW Radio, and the Colorado Radio Network. Michael is a licensed Managing Broker in Colorado and a GRI (Graduate Realtor® Institute). He is also a partner in the firm, Cash Path Real Estate LLC. Michael has an MBA in International Business from Regis University in Denver.

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Saturday, March 22, 2008

RE: Property Flipping Seminar

Folks:
 
I normally post the updated market information to my blog on a monthly basis, usually by the 5th of each month, for the month looking back. However, due to the mention of this blog at the CAREI/William Bronchick Property Flipping Seminar, I am reposting some highlights for readers.
 
As we are about 10 days from the end of March, permit me to share the links for the previous months' information:
 
 
 

Oh, by the way™

… if you know of someone looking for a Realtor® whose service is "Mile High" and would appreciate the level of service I provide, please call me with their name and business number and I will be happy to follow up and take great care of them.

 

 

Kind regards,

 

Michael

 

Michael J. Clarkson
Broker Associate, GRI, MBA 
Work: 1.303.403.2641
Mobile: 1.303.332.6393
Fax: 1.866.723.4337
Email: mj@milehighhomehunter.com
IM: mjclarksondenver (MSN)
RE/MAX Alliance
9737 Wadsworth Parkway
Westminster, CO 80021
USA
See who we know in common Want a signature like this?
 

The Daily Dirt - Real Estate News Update from Michael Clarkson

RE/MAX Alliance
Issue 08-02.04 February 2008

Denver Market Conditions February 2008

Dear Mile,

I apologize for sending such a high volume of emails this past few weeks, but SO MUCH is happening in our local market. I know you are busy with your lives, so in my effort to provide you the best information, I wanted to forward my lastest market condition report to you.
Denver Market Conditions as of February 3, 2008
 
For more information, please click to www.MileHighMLS.com

 

Wow! The data this month really signifies a sea change!

 

Why?

 

There are three factors in the data that indicate Denver has a very favorable outlook in residential real estate:

  1. Continually strong sales activity, drawing down existing resale inventory - a 1,838 listing reduction in the month of January alone
    • This should jump back up as previously frustrated Sellers become encouraged and re-list their homes
    • However, sales activity continues above the 12 trailing month average rate.  In January, one would have expected essentially one week's worth of activity to dry up due to the mid-week New Year's holiday - which people seemed to cause people to take off the whole week. However, instead of the expected 683 unit drop in sales, we saw only a 252 unit drop, or 1/3 of the normally anticipated drop.  So, sales continued at a healthy pace.
  2. Builders are heavily discounting their inventory homes in an effort to improve balance sheets and retain market share. 
    • We have already seen TOUSA - locally known under the brand Engle Homes - file for Chapter 11 reorganization. 
    • Moreover, builders are moving to a build-on-contract model, which will take lots of inventory out of the market. This should have a very favorable impact on home prices, particularly where new home incentives have created "hostage values" - these are values held hostage by the builder.  In other words, the incentives a builder offers holds the net prices of resale homes down, largely by the amount of the incentives. Take those incentives away, upward pricing pressure is allowed to re-establish itself. 
  3. Interest rates are having downward pressure exerted on them. 
    • The dropping of the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% and 3.0% within a 3 week period indicate that there is a larger concern about the economy stalling.  It also would appear to be a means to soften the ARM Adjustment/Foreclosure phenomenon

 

Factors aside, how did the Denver market fare?

 

In January, the market composite of the communities featured were:

  • Seller's Market - 11 (down from 13)
  • Netural Market - 5 (up from 3)
  • Buyer's Market - 1 (though static, this market moved from Erie to Golden)

 

So, the market, though impacted by the holidays, stayed largely healthy.

 

Additionally, the in-month trends appear to be very favorably impacted from the TWO Fed Funds rate cuts. The trends changed in the following way in January:

  • Trend toward a Seller's Market - 13 locales (up from 6)
  • Trend toward a Buyer's Market - 4 locales (down from 11)

 

The change in trend is determined by taking the current month under contract homes and determining the percentage change from the 12 trailing months' average monthly home sales. So, if you sold an average of 100 homes per month the past twelve months, and had 110 go under conract in the present month, then you would see a 10% trend toward a Seller's Market {([110-100]/100) = +10%}.  The data for each featured community is shown in the table.

 

Well, the numbers continue to be strong, even while we had most of the first week of the month wiped out by a mid-week holiday (New Year's), which caused a lot of buyers to self-eliminate from the market.  However, over half a month of rate reductions from the Fed caused a significant upswing in lead activity.  Indeed, the author of this article saw website traffic jump by nearly 10%, with average daily new leads doubling the seasonal average.

 

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) recently published a report that stated, "Prices will still rise by 2% in 2008 if mortgage rates rise to 7.5% next year from the current 6.5%."  They further added, almost as if they foresaw the Fed Funds rate cuts, there is a potential for a price improvement between 5.7% and 14.6% based on interest rate changes and corresponding debt service capacity.  Please see the "Alternate Price Forecasts" table in the NAR report on my website:

http://www.milehighhomehunter.com/Price_20_Outlook.html

 

So, is it a good time to buy?  That you can only answer for yourself.  However, I can share that many brokers in the Metro Area are seeing what this broker is seeing: increased activity.  Please read the article on my blog: http://www.milehighmls.com/2008/02/michael-clarkson-interviewed-for-denver.html

  

 

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities

 

Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for the period January 2, 2008 until February 2, 2008.

Single Family Residences Between $100k and $1,000k

Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList

 

Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

 

 

 

Locale

Active Listings

12 Months Sold

 Sold per Month (Avg)

 Months  Inventory (MOI)

Current Mkt State

Under Con-tract

Sales Trend

Sales Trend Chg.%

Arvada

                494

             1,439

              119.9

                  4.1

 Seller's Market

                 126

 Seller's Trend

5%

Boulder

                  78

                269

               22.4

                 3.5

 Seller's Market

                   21

 Buyer's Trend

-6%

Broomfield

                294

                 791

               65.9

                 4.5

 Seller's Market

                  70

 Seller's Trend

6%

Castle Rock

                706

             1,323

              110.3

                 6.4

 Neutral Market

                 133

 Seller's Trend

21%

Denver

            3,796

            7,657

             638.1

                 5.9

 Neutral Market

                850

 Seller's Trend

33%

Erie

                 163

                305

               25.4

                 6.4

 Neutral Market

                  30

 Seller's Trend

18%

Golden

                383

                702

               58.5

                 6.5

 Buyer's Market

                  50

 Buyer's Trend

-15%

Greenwood Village

                  53

                  101

                 8.4

                 6.3

 Neutral Market

                     9

 Seller's Trend

7%

Highlands Ranch

                334

                930

               77.5

                 4.3

 Seller's Market

                  112

 Seller's Trend

45%

Lafayette

                  74

                 197

                16.4

                 4.5

 Seller's Market

                   15

 Buyer's Trend

-9%

Lakewood

                508

              1,413

              117.8

                 4.3

 Seller's Market

                 132

 Seller's Trend

12%

Littleton

                746

             2,981

            248.4

                 3.0

 Seller's Market

                 182

 Buyer's Trend

-27%

Louisville

                  27

                 100

                 8.3

                 3.2

 Seller's Market

                   13

 Seller's Trend

56%

Northglenn

                 201

                  411

               34.3

                 5.9

 Neutral Market

                  47

 Seller's Trend

37%

Parker

                630

             1,603

             133.6

                 4.7

 Seller's Market

                 153

 Seller's Trend

15%

Superior

                  26

                 130

                10.8

                 2.4

 Seller's Market

                     8

 Buyer's Trend

-26%

Thornton

                747

             1,620

             135.0

                 5.5

 Neutral Market

                 183

 Seller's Trend

36%

West-minster

                557

             1,246

             103.8

                 5.4

 Seller's Market

                  151

 Seller's Trend

45%

Wheat Ridge

                  131

                303

               25.3

                 5.2

 Seller's Market

                  30

 Seller's Trend

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total of Selected Towns & Locales

    9,948

   23,521

  1,960.1

         5.1

 Seller's Market

     2,315

 Seller's Trend

18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total MetroList*

           16,997

           35,531

         2,960.9

                 5.7

 Neutral Market

            3,690

 Seller's Trend

25%

* Single Family Residences Only

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com

http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com

http://www.HomesInColorado.com/mclarkson

http://www.MileHighMLS.com

http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 


 

As always, whenever YOU are ready, I am here Bringing The World Home To You
 
And, if you know of someone that is looking to buy or sell, I am NEVER too busy for any of your referrals.
 
Kind regards and happy "Home Hunting", 
 

Michael Clarkson
RE/MAX Alliance
303.403.2641
 
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Michael Clarkson
Michael Clarkson
Realtor® GRI
RE/MAX Alliance
9737 Wadsworth Parkway
303.403.2641
www.MileHighHomeHunter.com
MJ@MileHighHomeHunter.com
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