The Daily Dirt - Foreclosures - RealtyTrac Numbers Don't Add Up

01/2009 Vol 2, Issue 1.16 RealtyTrac Numbers Don't Add Up Dear Blog,   Bad reporting costs you. Check out this article to see what I mean.    If you have any feedback, please let me know (good, bad and ugly) at mj@milehighhomehunter.com     By the way, I have set up some real estate resources for you on Amazon.com.     Are you: Looking for the NEW GOOGLE phone? Check out: T-Mobile G1 with Google Phone Looking for a NEW Blackberry? Check out: Blackberry Smart Phones A first time homebuyer? Check out: The First-Time Homeowner's Handbook Investing in Apartment Buildings? Check out: Investing in Apartment Buildings Investing in Real Estate? Check out: The Pre-Foreclosure Property Investor's Kit Needing tools for your next "Fix n' Flip"? Check out the Amazon.com pre-canned search here  If you are looking for anything else, check out any of the affiliate links under the "Amazon.com: Real Estate" button on the top of my website: www.MileHighHomeHunter.com Market Place Links   Have something to sell? A small business to promote? Contact me to have your link added here:   Shop for real estate books   Shop for home improvement tools    Experience Renewal   Get Financial Renewal Quick Links Foreclosure Homes Market Stats Valued Lender Referral Search for Homes    Join our Mailing List! Don't Forget! Support the Race for The Cure! Help me raise funds for the Race for the Cure! Donate directly to Komen Denver here     RealtyTrac Numbers Don't Add Up       By Michael Clarkson - The Mile High Home Hunter         If your real estate broker said:  This home is $200,000, plus or minus $140,000 This home has 4 bedrooms, plus or minus 2.5 bedrooms This home is 2000 square feet, plus or minus 1400 square feet Chances are, you might think that your real estate broker "never left Woodstock", and, then make the decision to find your own way back to the real estate office.  Well, it's ironic.  Why? Because the same appropriate doubt one would have with regard to the above is totally dismissed when put on the evening news.     I hear you saying: "What does that mean?"   The Denver Business Journal published the annual report from RealtyTrac yesterday (source: http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html ), January 15, 2009.  RealtyTrac Inc (www.RealtyTrac.com ) is a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, and one of the fastest-growing real estate sites on the Internet. RealtyTrac is often quoted in the media.  In that story, the following was noted, "In the past, state officials have disputed Colorado's high position in RealtyTrac's rankings, saying that because the state's public trustees report foreclosures at multiple stages of the process, RealtyTrac may overcount Colorado foreclosures. RealtyTrac officials have denied this, saying they have taken steps to ensure accurate counts."  (Kudos to the DBJ for that notation.)   Well, that's great to hear, but by how much?  How about 70% inaccurate?  Yes, OVER 70% inaccurate.    Here are the citations for my statements: Sources: Colorado Public Trustee's Website - http://www.e-ccta.org/Forms/Public%20Trustee/Sale%20Sats/2008%20foreclosures.htm  RealtyTrac Press Release (dated 1/15/09) - http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=5681&accnt=64847  Denver Business Journal - http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/01/12/daily48.html?t=printable Public Trustees are the folks that begin a foreclosure and close out a foreclosure.  Getting foreclosed?  You will hear from the Public Trustee.   So, one would think their data is the REAL AND ONLY DATA. Right? It has to be. They implement the Foreclosure Laws in Colorado.   Let's see how RealtyTrac deviates from the Colorado Public Trustee Association.    Foreclosures Actions Opened                                                                               2007          2008          Change      % Change   Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                            39,607       38,450           (1,157)          -2.92% RealtyTrac                                          71,149      66,795           (4,354)           -6.12% Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac                                     31,542      28,345            % Difference - Overstated/(Understated)                    79.64%     73.72%   Foreclosures Completed (in Colorado, known as a Public Trustee Sale)                                                                                          2007          2008          Change         % Change   Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                            24,929       20,825            (4,104)             -16.46% RealtyTrac                                         39,403        50,396           10,993               27.90% Overstatement/(Understatement) by RealtyTrac                                    14,474        29,571            % Difference - Overstated/(Understated)                   58.06%     142.00% Citations (via hyperlink): CPTA - 2007 CPTA -2008 RealtyTrac - 2007 RealtyTrac - 2008    So, let's get this straight: Colorado Public Trustees (the folks doing the foreclosures) - show foreclosures are down 17% RealtyTrac (the company that has a vested interest in hyping foreclosures) says they are up 27.9% Who do you believe?   Compounding this is the following regarding completed foreclosures: 2007 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 58% 2008 - Overstated by RealtyTrac by 142% When putting the corrected numbers into a national context, the following revised ranking is found for Colorado.  Foreclosure Rank                                                                 2007          2008          Change Colorado Public Trustees Association (CPTA)                                  15             23              ( 8 )   RealtyTrac                                                 5               5                0   Please remember that this revised ranking is ASSUMING that RealtyTrac's numbers for the 49 other states and the District of Columbia is accurate. As noted, that is not a given.   Congratulations to the Denver Business Journal for noting that accuracy controversy in their article.   CONGRATULATIONS, COLORADO!  You are not number 5 in 2008. You are #23.   So, why do I do this? I wonder aloud: How many homeowners have lost equity due to the inaccurate reporting?   For continued updates, sign up for my eNewsletter at http://www.milehighhomehunter.com/contact.html or read the latest at my blog at www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com .   "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."  - Churchill     Want The Latest Real Estate News? -- Contact me get automated updates for your home, neighborhood or a neighborhood where you are looking to purchase    Click Here To See My New Real Estate Video News Channel! As always, whenever YOU are ready, I am here Bringing The World Home To You™     And, if you know of someone that is looking to buy or sell, I am NEVER too busy for any of your referrals.       Kind regards and happy "Home Hunting",      Michael J. Clarkson   Broker/Owner - Mile High Home Hunter Realty  303.332.6393 MJ@MileHighHomeHunter.com        On the web: http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com http://www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com

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The Daily Dirt - Denver Prices Predicted Stable

01/2009 Vol 2, Issue 1.15 Denver Prices Stable - Market Risk Index  Dear Blog,   A recently released article identified Denver as a top 10 market for estimated stability through mid-2010.    If you have any feedback, please let me know (good, bad and ugly) at mj@milehighhomehunter.com     By the way, I have set up some real estate resources for you on Amazon.com.     Are you: Looking for the NEW GOOGLE phone? Check out: T-Mobile G1 with Google Phone Looking for a NEW Blackberry? Check out: Blackberry Smart Phones A first time homebuyer? Check out: The First-Time Homeowner's Handbook Investing in Apartment Buildings? Check out: Investing in Apartment Buildings Investing in Real Estate? Check out: The Pre-Foreclosure Property Investor's Kit Needing tools for your next "Fix n' Flip"? Check out the Amazon.com pre-canned search here  If you are looking for anything else, check out any of the affiliate links under the "Amazon.com: Real Estate" button on the top of my website: www.MileHighHomeHunter.com Market Place Links   Have something to sell? A small business to promote? Contact me to have your link added here:   Shop for real estate books   Shop for home improvement tools    Experience Renewal   Get Financial Renewal Quick Links Foreclosure Homes Market Stats Valued Lender Referral Search for Homes    Join our Mailing List! Don't Forget! Support the Race for The Cure! Help me raise funds for the Race for the Cure! Donate directly to Komen Denver here     Denver Home Prices Likely Stable     Wednesday, January 14, 2009, 2:30pm MST Report: Denver home prices likely to be stable through mid-2010 - Denver Business Journal   Denver is one of 10 U.S. metropolitan areas with a "minimal" risk of lower housing prices two years from now, according to an index of market risk.   The latest quarterly "Market Risk Index" by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. (NYSE: PMI), issued Wednesday, said the Denver-Aurora metro area ranks 10th among the cities that are expected to have stable housing prices between the third quarter of 2008 and the same quarter of 2010.   The index shows Denver bucking a national trend toward an increased risk of lower home prices.   It said the risk of lower prices is rising in 369 of 381 of the nation's metropolitan statistical areas.   Three Texas cities - Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston - are expected to have the least risk of declining housing prices over the next two years, Walnut Creek, Calif.-based PMI said.   As for metro areas where declining prices are most likely, PMI said, nine out of 10 are in California. The top three are Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif.; Miami; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.   "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Churchill     Want The Latest Real Estate News? -- Contact me get automated updates for your home, neighborhood or a neighborhood where you are looking to purchase    Click Here To See My New Real Estate Video News Channel! As always, whenever YOU are ready, I am here Bringing The World Home To You™     And, if you know of someone that is looking to buy or sell, I am NEVER too busy for any of your referrals.       Kind regards and happy "Home Hunting",      Michael J. Clarkson   Broker/Owner - Mile High Home Hunter Realty  303.332.6393 MJ@MileHighHomeHunter.com        On the web: http://www.MileHighHomeHunter.com http://www.MileHighForeclosure.com http://www.TheHomeHunterBlog.com

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Metro Denver Market Conditions By Price

Market Trend Analysis - Denver Metro Selected Towns/Cities
Based on information from MetroList, Inc. for period December 2008.
Single Family Residences - All Price Levels
Excludes Housing Not Listed in MetroList
Note: Six (5.5 to 6.5) Months of Inventory Tends to Indicate Neutral Market, Over 6.5 Months a Buyer's Market, Under 5.5 Months a Seller's Market
(How Calculated)		A		B	C = B/12	D = A/C		E
Price Range		Active	% of Market	Sold in Past 12 Months	Sold Per Month	Months of Inventory	Current Activity Status	Curr Month Under Contract	Near Term Sales Trend
$                  -	$        100,000	766	5.01%	5,075	423	1.81	Seller's Market	744	Seller's Trend
$        100,001	$        200,000	3,233	21.15%	11,780	982	3.29	Seller's Market	1,446	Seller's Trend
$        200,001	$        300,000	3,338	21.84%	10,384	865	3.86	Seller's Market	689	Buyer's Trend
$        300,001	$        400,000	2,269	14.84%	5,088	424	5.35	Seller's Market	346	Buyer's Trend
$        400,001	$        500,000	1,464	9.58%	2,481	207	7.08	Buyer's Market	189	Buyer's Trend
$        500,001	$        600,000	938	6.14%	1,187	99	9.48	Buyer's Market	91	Buyer's Trend
$        600,001	$        700,000	730	4.78%	644	54	13.60	Buyer's Market	51	Buyer's Trend
$        700,001	$        800,000	499	3.26%	394	33	15.20	Buyer's Market	27	Buyer's Trend
$        800,001	$        900,000	372	2.43%	278	23	16.06	Buyer's Market	21	Buyer's Trend
$        900,001	$     1,000,000	300	1.96%	177	15	20.34	Buyer's Market	21	Seller's Trend
$     1,000,001	No Upper Boundary	1,378	9.01%	552	46	29.96	Buyer's Market	53	Seller's Trend
Total (Seasonally Adjusted)*		15,287	100.00%	38,040	3,170	4.82	Seller's Market	3,678	Seller's Trend
Total (NOT Seasonally Adjusted)**		14,995	xx	37,988	3,166	4.74	Seller's Market	2,668	Buyer's Trend
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http://www.CashPathRealEstate.com
Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by MetroList, Inc. MetroList, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by MetroList, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
* Uses 12-trailing months' average to smooth out the effects of Denver's purchase season (60% Apr - Sep; 40% Oct - Mar).
** Uses raw data to show the impact of current levels of purchases on current levels of supply.  This causes substantial seasonal swings in months of inventory. MetroList cutoff date may likely differ from date of data shown above.

 

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Michael J. Clarkson Broker/Owner, GRI, MBA
Work: 1.303.317.2478 Mobile: 1.303.332.6393 Fax: 1.866.723.4337 Email: mj@milehighhomehunter.com IM: mjclarksondenver (MSN) Home Page Mile High Home Hunter Realty PO Box 837 Erie, CO 80516 USA
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